GDP likely to rise 6.5% in 2015

According to its latest economic report, the NFSC forecast that GDP growth rate would be 6.4% in the first three quarters, higher than the figure of 6.28% in the first half.

The NFSC attributed the recovery to production rebound, especially in the manufacturing and processing industries.

Commercial activities progressed positively and trade deficit was on the decline in comparison with the first six months. Export turnover was estimated at US$ 92.3 billion (up 16.4%) while trade gap stood at US$ 3.4 billion (accounting for 3.6% of total export turnover).

Business sector showed signs of recovery and expanded at the fastest pace since 2009.  

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) continued to recover since 2014 and gained an average income growth rate of 60.93% in Q1, a year-on-year surge of 15.89%.

According to the Commission, thanks to great endeavor of the business community and State support policies, business performance has been improved.

In addition, the recovering growth also encouraged private consumption and investment. The total sale of goods and services was forecast to grow at 9.9%, or at 8.3% if excluding price factor, the record high over the last five years.  

Remaining issues on exchange rates & budget

The Commission also assessed that the foreign exchange market was stable in the January-July period.

The balance of payment got better. The inflow of overseas remittance would fetch US$ 13-14 billion. The amount of FDI disbursement would grow.  

However, the Commission pointed to the slow progress of Government bonds issuance as it met only 34% of the year target.  

In addition, as of mid-July, budget collection accounted for 52.3% of the year target, lower than the figure of 57.3% in the same period last year./.